A new approach to spatial source apportionment of haze pollution in large scale and its application in China

Long-lasting expansion of haze pollution in China has already presented a stern challenge to regional joint prevention and control. There is an urgent need to enlarge and reconstruct the coverage of joint prevention and control of air pollution in key area. Air quality models can identify and quantify the regional contribution of haze pollution and its key components with the help of numerical simulation, but it is difficult to be applied to larger spatial scale due to the complexity of model parameters. The time series analysis can recognize the existence of spatial interaction of haze pollution between cities, but it has not yet been used to further identify the spatial sources of haze pollution in large scale. Using econometric framework of time series analysis, this paper developed a new approach to perform spatial source apportionment. We applied this approach to calculate the contribution from spatial sources of haze pollution in China, using the monitoring data of particulate matter (PM_2.5) across 161 Chinese cities. This approach overcame the limitation of numerical simulation that the model complexity increases at excess with the expansion of sample range, and could effectively deal with severe large-scale haze episodes.     

齐齐哈尔市PM2.5与PM10污染趋势及相关性分析

对2014—2016年齐齐哈尔市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的时间变化特征进行简要分析,并探究PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)以及PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的相关性。结果表明:2014—2016年齐齐哈尔的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的年均质量浓度分别为36.7、62.9μg/m~3,且呈逐渐下降趋势;冬季的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)浓度最高,秋季次之,春季与夏季相对较低;2014—2016年PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度月变化趋势基本相同,整体呈现2—6月逐渐下降,9—11月逐渐上升的规律;PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的日变化均呈双峰现象;对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)进行线性拟合,相关系数为0.896 3。同时,残差分析也说明两者拟合情况良好,四季相关系数为r_(秋季)(0.982 2)r_(冬季)(0.964 4)r_(夏季)(0.943 9)r_(春季)(0.829 6);2014—2016年PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)平均值为55.27%,大气颗粒物PM_(2.5)的贡献率高达一半以上。     

洪泽湖水体富营养化时空分布特征与影响因素分析

通过2014年—2017年对洪泽湖12个水质断面定期调查,采用营养状态指数(TLI)综合评价其水体富营养状态,同时应用主成分分析方法(PCA)分析其富营养化状态的时空变化特征。结果表明,洪泽湖70%以上的调查断面水质全年处于轻度富营养化状态,夏季是其富营养化最严重的季节;洪泽湖年内水体水质差异较大,而其水华特征并未呈现明显差异;洪泽湖富营养化很大程度上受制于营养盐的积累程度,并与湖泊透明度呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.001),与湖水pH值呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

Incorporating putatively neutral and adaptive genomic data into marine conservation planning

The availability of genomic data for an increasing number of species makes it possible to incorporate evolutionary processes into conservation plans. Recent studies show how genetic data can inform spatial conservation prioritization (SCP), but they focus on metrics of diversity and distinctness derived primarily from neutral genetic data sets. Identifying adaptive genetic markers can provide important information regarding the capacity for populations to adapt to environmental change. Yet, the effect of including metrics based on adaptive genomic data into SCP in comparison to more widely used neutral genetic metrics has not been explored. We used existing genomic data on a commercially exploited species, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), to perform SCP for the coastal region of British Columbia (BC), Canada. Using a RAD-seq data set for 717 P. californicus individuals across 24 sampling locations, we identified putatively adaptive (i.e., candidate) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on genotype–environment associations with seafloor temperature. We calculated various metrics for both neutral and candidate SNPs and compared SCP outcomes with independent metrics and combinations of metrics. Priority areas varied depending on whether neutral or candidate SNPs were used and on the specific metric used. For example, targeting sites with a high frequency of warm-temperature-associated alleles to support persistence under future warming prioritized areas in the southern coastal region. In contrast, targeting sites with high expected heterozygosity at candidate loci to support persistence under future environmental uncertainty prioritized areas in the north. When combining metrics, all scenarios generated intermediate solutions, protecting sites that span latitudinal and thermal gradients. Our results demonstrate that distinguishing between neutral and adaptive markers can affect conservation solutions and emphasize the importance of defining objectives when choosing among various genomic metrics for SCP.     

基于超效率DEA模型的三峡库区生态效率评价及空间演化格局分析

本文基于2010—2017年的统计数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对三峡库区26个区县的生态效率进行测算,然后运用空间自相关分析方法对三峡库区生态效率的演化格局进行了实证分析,探索三峡库区生态效率的时空动态演变特征。研究表明:2010—2017年三峡库区生态效率平均水平处于0.5601～1.1920,整体呈现波动性变化趋势,生态效率在一定程度上有所改善,但是整体水平仍然较低;从区域层面看,各个区县间生态效率水平不平衡,空间分布上呈现"西高东低"的非均衡性特征。局部空间自相关分析表明,三峡库区2010—2017年集聚性呈逐渐减弱态势,空间异质性逐渐增加,整体的生态效率差异变大。最后依据实证研究分析结果,本文对如何提升三峡库区生态效率提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国高速公路周边土壤重金属污染现状及研究进展

以我国高速公路周边土壤重金属为研究对象，综述了我国高速公路周边土壤重金属污染特征、影响因素、来源、环境风险及其研究进展。高速公路周边土壤主要受Pb、Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn等重金属污染，主要呈现指数分布、偏态分布和两者混合分布等特点，并且受到土地利用、风向、地形、车流量等多种因素的综合影响。土壤重金属的来源除了受成土母质等自然因素影响以外，公路交通和周边工农业活动也会对其来源产生较大影响。传统的土壤重金属评价方法主要采用单因子指数法、地累积指数法、生态风险评价法等对重金属的污染等级和环境风险进行评价。未来的研究应将重金属形态分析、空间和地统计分析、重金属稳定同位素示踪和源解析模型以及预测模型等多种手段相结合，开展高速公路周边土壤重金属的污染特征、时空分布、来源及预测预警研究等，为我国高速公路沿线工农业生产布局及其土壤重金属污染防控提供科学依据和决策支撑。     

海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间外溢效应评价研究

海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展空间关联性及其外溢效应对于海水养殖业的有效协调和区域海洋环境的有效保护具有重要意义,科学估算沿海各省(自治区)海水养殖渔业碳汇量并探讨其空间相关性特征是制定差异化渔业碳汇发展政策的重要基础。根据2006—2016年中国大陆沿海9个省(自治区)的碳汇渔业资源清查数据,在检验和比较省域空间渔业碳汇总量相关性特征的基础上,运用空间计量模型分析了渔业碳汇的外溢效应及其影响因素。结果表明:①中国海水养殖渔业碳汇量整体上呈现上升趋势,但各省渔业碳汇量也存在明显差异。②研究期内的Moran's I指数整体呈现为"V"型的波动变化特征,渔业碳汇在省域空间分布上的差异性并不是随机的,而是具备显著的空间相关性。③海水养殖渔业碳汇存在明显的空间外溢效应,通过随机效应的杜宾模型分解后得出渔业产值、劳动力投入的直接效应为正,而渔业受灾面积和科研项目经费投入的直接效应为负;从间接效应来看,渔业产值在各省域间存在竞争与依存关系,海水养殖业劳动力投入和渔业技术推广的项目经费投入在各省域间存在互补关系。因此,中国沿海各省份在发挥海洋水产养殖业生态功能时,应当考虑省域区位因素,合理制定兼具差异化和协调性的海洋碳汇渔业发展政策。     

环境规制、省际产业转移对污染迁移的空间溢出效应

目前我国正在积极地探寻经济增长高质量发展,生态环境与经济持续、稳定的和谐发展至关重要。虽然政府制定了相关的环境治理政策,但我国环境治理整体效果仍然欠佳。自从分税制改革以来,地方政府为了获得较高经济效益,会放松对环境管理,导致环境治理高投入低成效。同时,由于区域经济发展不平衡导致政府在制定相关环境治理政策时带有区域性特点,迫使高污染高能耗企业迁移至环境规制相对薄弱的地区,由此产生污染迁移的现象。基于此,对2003—2017年30个省区市(港澳台和西藏除外)环境污染总指数的空间溢出效应进行探讨,构建动态空间杜宾模型研究环境规制、省际产业转移对污染迁移的影响。研究结果表明:①环境规制总体上对环境污染具有显著直接效应且存在正向空间溢出效应,当某省环境规制强度增加,环境污染总指数会降低,从而引起污染向相邻省份转移,造成相邻省份的环境污染总指数上升。②省际产业转移整体上对环境污染具有显著直接效应且存在负向空间溢出效应,当某省的产业转移到相邻省份时,会缓解本省环境污染,却加重相邻省份的环境污染程度。这就需要中央政府加强对于各省区市的环境管控,统筹各区域的联防联治机制。产业转移承接省份在招商引资的过程中不仅要考虑本省环境承载能力和环境治理能力,还要考虑入驻企业自身污染排放处理能力,并将污染排放指数纳入筛选条件。同时,产业转移承接省份要引入企业的生产工艺、技术、研发团队等,运用技术溢出效应提升区域环境治理水平。     

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species’ current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.     

基于GIS的东辽河流域生态安全空间差异评价研究

生态安全建设是协调经济开发与生态保护的重要战略.区域生态安全评价与预警研究具有空间特性、非线性、随机性,研究过程中必须处理大量的空间信息,而空间分析和空间数据管理正是GIS的优势,它使各环境要素的分布态势及彼此间的拓扑关系一目了然,并且图文并茂地展示全流域的生态安全格局.在充分研究辽河流域生态环境状况基础上,选取东辽河流域11个县市区,借助GIS格网赋值技术,讨论了基于GIS的东辽河生态安全空间差异的评价方法.首先,拟定"压力-状态-响应"(P-S-R)指标体系,实地调查并收集资料;然后,数字化流域,运用模糊AHP法赋权并量化计算;最后,建立东辽河流域生态安全指数GRID数据库,进行GIS的空间Interpolate运算和Assembly分析.结果表明,公主岭市是生态安全区,约占全流域面积的10.78%;西丰市和东辽县是生态不安全区,约占流域面积的13.07%;其余8个地区为生态安全中等区,约占全流域面积的76.15%.评价结果与各地区现状生态环境评价基本-致.提出了相应的生态保护建议.